Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rory MacDonald has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rory MacDonald has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricRory MacDonald
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nate DiazRory MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +139.1|Blue -139.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nate DiazTargetRory MacDonald
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:57
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:58
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:00Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:34
14Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
