Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Justin Scoggins has lost 60% of fights by sub.
- Justin Scoggins has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
- Said Nurmagomedov has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin ScogginsL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs John Moraga · Sep 14W
DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16L
SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17 Said NurmagomedovL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22L
vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23W
SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25L
vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin ScogginsMetricSaid Nurmagomedov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.40evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin ScogginsSaid Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -126.9|Blue +126.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin ScogginsTargetSaid Nurmagomedov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Said Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 2Said Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Said Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
