Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Max Holloway has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Max Holloway
oldest →W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26 Anthony PettisW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20W
vs Donald Cerrone · May 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Max HollowayMetricAnthony Pettis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.30Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap-0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Max HollowayAnthony Pettis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Max Holloway(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +24.4|Blue -24.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Max HollowayTargetAnthony Pettis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns2
Control0:26
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
