Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Petersen (53.5%).
- Guilherme Pat has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Guilherme Pat
oldest →W
vs Allen Frye Jr. · Dec 25 Thomas PetersenL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Mohammed Usman · Jul 24L
KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Feb 25W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · May 25L
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Oct 25L
SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Guilherme PatMetricThomas Petersen
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Guilherme PatThomas Petersen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Guilherme Pat(2 fights)Thomas Petersen(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +16.6|Blue -16.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Guilherme PatTargetThomas Petersen
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:03Control
Round 2Thomas Petersen edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:55Control
Round 3Thomas Petersen edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
4:38Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
