Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charlie Brenneman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Rick Story has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charlie BrennemanL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12L
SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14L
KOvs Danny Castillo · Apr 14L
SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14 Rick Story
oldest →L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charlie BrennemanMetricRick Story
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.03Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap+1.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Charlie BrennemanRick Story
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -136.8|Blue +136.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Charlie BrennemanTargetRick Story
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Charlie Brenneman rounds
Round 1Charlie Brenneman edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control3:23
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 2Charlie Brenneman edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control4:04
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control2:17
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:56Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
