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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1541

Tony FergusonvsPaddy PimblettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(85.1%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tony Ferguson has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tony Ferguson has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Paddy Pimblett

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1485

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Beneil Dariush · May 21

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 24

KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricPaddy Pimblett

4.91

Strikes / min

5.49

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.89

55%

Strike defense

42%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

0.69

66%

Takedown defense

44%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+1.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonPaddy Pimblett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.4|Blue +56.4

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -231.0|Blue +231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetPaddy Pimblett

By target zone

53% acc · 56%

Head

57% acc · 69%

66% acc · 37%

Body

76% acc · 12%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

95% acc · 19%

By position

56% acc · 82%

Distance

61% acc · 62%

Clinch

79% acc · 18%

Ground

71% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Paddy Pimblett rounds

Round 1Paddy Pimblett edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

70Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Paddy Pimblett edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:20Control

Round 3Paddy Pimblett edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 105

Sig Strikes

106 / 165

60.3%

Sig Str %

62.3%

90 / 134

Total Strikes

151 / 217

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

8:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paddy Pimblett	70 / 104	76 / 110	0 / 1
1	Tony Ferguson	29 / 55	31 / 57	0 / 0
2	Paddy Pimblett	19 / 27	46 / 58	0 / 0
2	Tony Ferguson	11 / 18	18 / 25	0 / 0
3	Paddy Pimblett	17 / 34	29 / 49	1 / 3
3	Tony Ferguson	22 / 32	41 / 52	0 / 0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9