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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1402

Elo1466

Demian MaiavsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Saturday, March 14, 2020Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:34

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Demian Maia has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1402

Elo

1466

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian Maia

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · May 18

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricGilbert Burns

1.80

Strikes / min

3.16

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

63%

Strike defense

52%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

2.04

61%

Takedown defense

53%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.3|Blue +63.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

57% acc · 100%

Head

77% acc · 77%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

71% acc · 38%

Clinch

Ground

89% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:24

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 7

Sig Strikes

13 / 16

57%

Sig Str %

81%

4 / 7

Total Strikes

14 / 17

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gilbert Burns	13 / 16	14 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Demian Maia	4 / 7	4 / 7	2 / 2	0

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24