Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aaron Simpson has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aaron Simpson
oldest →W
vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11W
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11L
vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12W
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12 Eric SchaferL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Jorge Rivera · Jan 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aaron SimpsonMetricEric Schafer
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.07Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap-1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Aaron SimpsonEric Schafer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Eric Schafer(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +138.9|Blue -138.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -468.0|Blue +468.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Aaron SimpsonTargetEric Schafer
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:25
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
