Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chris Cariaso has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
- Louis Smolka has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15 Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricLouis Smolka
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris CariasoLouis Smolka
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -69.4|Blue +69.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +3.0|Blue -3.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -17.0|Blue +17.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris CariasoTargetLouis Smolka
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:09
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:20Control
Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:36
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:15Control
Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control0:24
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
