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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Wade won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Chris Wade
Elo1357

Chris WadevsMehdi BaghdadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Chris Wade won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:30

Style matchupChris Wade: WrestlervsMehdi Baghdad: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Chris Wade wins(86.5%)

Actual result: Chris Wade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Wade at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Wade threatens submissions; Mehdi Baghdad has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Chris Wade has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Mehdi Baghdad has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Wade
Red Corner
VS
Mehdi Baghdad
Blue Corner
-470
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
1491
Elo
1357
38
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Wade
oldest →
W
DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Jan 15
W
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 15
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · May 16
L
vs Islam Makhachev · Sep 16
W
vs Frankie Perez · Jul 17
latest
Mehdi Baghdad
oldest →
L
vs John Makdessi · Jul 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WadeMetricMehdi Baghdad
1.70
Strikes / min
3.13
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.56
51%
Strike defense
46%
2.60
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
33%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.05Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1554 vs 1500Strikes26.3 vs —Takedowns3.0 vs —Sub Atts0.33 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Chris WadeMehdi Baghdad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Chris Wade(7 fights)Mehdi Baghdad(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +133.4|Blue -133.4
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WadeTargetMehdi Baghdad

By target zone

4
33% acc · 80%
Head
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 20%
Leg
0

By position

1
33% acc · 20%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
4
40% acc · 80%
Ground
1
100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Chris Wade rounds
0
even
0
Mehdi Baghdad rounds
Round 1Chris Wade edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control4:15
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 13
Sig Strikes
1 / 5
38%
Sig Str %
20%
40 / 58
Total Strikes
2 / 6
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:15
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mehdi Baghdad1 / 52 / 60 / 00
1Chris Wade5 / 1340 / 582 / 21

Chris Wade

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7

Mehdi Baghdad

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights2