Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24 Alexa Grasso
oldest →W
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22W
SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24L
vs Natalia Silva · May 25W
KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricAlexa Grasso
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.68Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Carla EsparzaAlexa Grasso
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -15.5|Blue +15.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Carla EsparzaTargetAlexa Grasso
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Carla Esparza edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control1:31
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2Carla Esparza edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control3:25
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 3Alexa Grasso edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control2:16
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
