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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Chris Weidman won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1490
Elo1494
Chris Weidman

Mark MunozvsChris WeidmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:37

Style matchupMark Munoz: WrestlervsChris Weidman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mark Munoz wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Munoz at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Weidman has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Chris Weidman has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Munoz
Red Corner
VS
Chris Weidman
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1490
Elo
1494
48
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Munoz
oldest →
W
vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13
L
SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14
L
SUBvs Roan Carneiro · Feb 15
W
vs Luke Barnatt · May 15
latest
Chris Weidman
oldest →
W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark MunozMetricChris Weidman
3.12
Strikes / min
3.11
2.26
Strikes absorbed / min
3.37
57%
Strike defense
51%
3.17
TDs / 15 min
3.27
57%
Takedown defense
72%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.86Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1571 vs 1570Strikes31.9 vs 28.3Takedowns1.6 vs 2.8Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.50Form0.8 vs 1.0
Mark MunozChris Weidman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mark Munoz(10 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.1|Blue +4.1
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark MunozTargetChris Weidman

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
20
69% acc · 71%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 7%
0
0% acc
Leg
6
100% acc · 21%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
3
43% acc · 11%
0
Clinch
8
89% acc · 29%
0
Ground
17
81% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mark Munoz rounds
0
even
2
Chris Weidman rounds
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:22Control
Round 2Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:50Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 7
Sig Strikes
28 / 37
0%
Sig Str %
76%
1 / 8
Total Strikes
46 / 59
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 2
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
5:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Weidman13 / 1627 / 341 / 12
1Mark Munoz0 / 01 / 10 / 00
2Chris Weidman15 / 2119 / 251 / 10
2Mark Munoz0 / 70 / 70 / 00

Mark Munoz

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20