Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Yves Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Yves Edwards has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Yves Edwards has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Yves Edwards (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24 Yves EdwardsL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12L
vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13L
vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13L
SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14L
SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricYves Edwards
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tony FergusonYves Edwards
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Yves Edwards(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +131.2|Blue -131.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tony FergusonTargetYves Edwards
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control0:10
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Yves Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
