Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Fiziev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad RiddellL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Magomed Mustafaev · Feb 20W
vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20L
SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22 Rafael Fiziev
oldest →L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26W
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad RiddellMetricRafael Fiziev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.18Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brad RiddellRafael Fiziev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Riddell(7 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -68.3|Blue +68.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brad RiddellTargetRafael Fiziev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Brad Riddell edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rafael Fiziev edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Brad Riddell edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:14
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
