Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robert Whittaker has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robert Whittaker
oldest →L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26 Paulo CostaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25W
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robert WhittakerMetricPaulo Costa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Robert WhittakerPaulo Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robert Whittaker(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.8|Blue +10.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -322.0|Blue +322.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Robert WhittakerTargetPaulo Costa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
