← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rodrigo Nascimento won · S-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1500

Ilir LatifivsRodrigo NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rodrigo Nascimento won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIlir Latifi: WrestlervsRodrigo Nascimento: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins(81.3%)

Actual result: Rodrigo Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Nascimento at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilir Latifi has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilir Latifi has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rodrigo Nascimento has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ilir Latifi

Red Corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

Blue Corner

+166

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1497

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ilir LatifiW2 streak

oldest →

vs Corey Anderson · Dec 18

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Aug 19

vs Derrick Lewis · Feb 20

vs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Oct 22

latest

Rodrigo NascimentoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jul 21

vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24

vs Alexandr Romanov · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ilir LatifiMetricRodrigo Nascimento

2.05

Strikes / min

3.71

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

56%

Strike defense

44%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

1.02

100%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88evenly matched on net striking-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ilir LatifiRodrigo Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ilir Latifi(10 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ilir LatifiTargetRodrigo Nascimento

By target zone

48% acc · 41%

Head

42% acc · 75%

82% acc · 37%

Body

48% acc · 15%

85% acc · 22%

Leg

78% acc · 10%

By position

64% acc · 94%

Distance

42% acc · 90%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ilir Latifi rounds

even

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

Round 1Rodrigo Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ilir Latifi edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:12

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rodrigo Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:38

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 77

Sig Strikes

68 / 152

63%

Sig Str %

43.7%

76 / 105

Total Strikes

76 / 160

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:50

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	34 / 73	34 / 73	0 / 0
1	Ilir Latifi	28 / 44	28 / 44	0 / 1
2	Rodrigo Nascimento	15 / 36	17 / 38	0 / 0
2	Ilir Latifi	11 / 17	38 / 45	1 / 1
3	Rodrigo Nascimento	19 / 43	25 / 49	0 / 0
3	Ilir Latifi	10 / 16	10 / 16	1 / 5

Ilir Latifi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8