Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25 Yair Rodriguez
oldest →L
vs Max Holloway · Nov 21W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricYair Rodriguez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.54Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap+0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brian OrtegaYair Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -15.1|Blue +15.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brian OrtegaTargetYair Rodriguez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control2:24
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
