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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Themba Gorimbo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1459

Elo1489

Takashi SatovsThemba GorimboUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Themba Gorimbo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Themba Gorimbo wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Themba Gorimbo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Themba Gorimbo at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takashi Sato enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Takashi Sato (53.5%).
Themba Gorimbo has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Takashi Sato

Red Corner

Themba Gorimbo

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1459

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takashi SatoL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 19

KOvs Jason Witt · Jun 20

SUBvs Miguel Baeza · Nov 20

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 22

KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22

latest

Themba GorimboL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 24

vs Niko Price · Oct 24

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 24

vs Jeremiah Wells · Nov 25

DECvs Jonathan Micallef · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takashi SatoMetricThemba Gorimbo

2.21

Strikes / min

2.70

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

44%

Strike defense

51%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

4.52

60%

Takedown defense

73%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.52Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takashi SatoThemba Gorimbo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takashi Sato(7 fights)Themba Gorimbo(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.9|Blue +29.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takashi SatoTargetThemba Gorimbo

By target zone

57% acc · 70%

Head

51% acc · 64%

90% acc · 30%

Body

80% acc · 36%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 17%

Distance

48% acc · 36%

94% acc · 50%

Clinch

75% acc · 27%

67% acc · 33%

Ground

63% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takashi Sato rounds

even

Themba Gorimbo rounds

Round 1Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:32

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:58Control

Round 2Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:14

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:20Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:35

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 47

Sig Strikes

33 / 56

59.3%

Sig Str %

61%

56 / 76

Total Strikes

110 / 158

2 / 6

TDs

3 / 8

37.5%

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

11:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Themba Gorimbo	7 / 16	39 / 57	1 / 3
1	Takashi Sato	3 / 8	15 / 21	1 / 2
2	Themba Gorimbo	18 / 30	40 / 57	1 / 2
2	Takashi Sato	14 / 17	21 / 25	1 / 4
3	Themba Gorimbo	8 / 10	31 / 44	1 / 3
3	Takashi Sato	13 / 22	20 / 30	0 / 0

Takashi Sato

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Themba Gorimbo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7