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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Irene Aldana won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1515
Ketlen Vieira
Elo1499
Irene Aldana

Ketlen VieiravsIrene AldanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Irene Aldana won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:51

Style matchupKetlen Vieira: Well-roundedvsIrene Aldana: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ketlen Vieira wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Irene Aldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ketlen Vieira at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ketlen Vieira
Red Corner
VS
Irene Aldana
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1515
Elo
1499
34
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ketlen Vieira
oldest →
W
vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 23
L
vs Kayla Harrison · Oct 24
W
vs Macy Chiasson · May 25
L
vs Norma Dumont · Nov 25
W
DECvs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · May 26
latest
Irene Aldana
oldest →
W
KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21
W
KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22
L
vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23
W
vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23
L
vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ketlen VieiraMetricIrene Aldana
2.76
Strikes / min
5.19
3.75
Strikes absorbed / min
6.64
50%
Strike defense
56%
1.33
TDs / 15 min
0.15
90%
Takedown defense
77%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.99evenly matched on net striking-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1561 vs 1519Takedowns2.2 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.83 vs 0.15Form1.0 vs 0.5
Ketlen VieiraIrene Aldana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Ketlen Vieira(10 fights)Irene Aldana(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.6|Blue -15.6
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -2.1|Blue +2.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +567.0|Blue -567.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ketlen VieiraTargetIrene Aldana

By target zone

19
25% acc · 95%
Head
13
25% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 5%
Body
7
54% acc · 27%
0
Leg
6
100% acc · 23%

By position

20
26% acc · 100%
Distance
24
35% acc · 92%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ketlen Vieira rounds
0
even
1
Irene Aldana rounds
Round 1Irene Aldana edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
20 / 76
Sig Strikes
26 / 71
26%
Sig Str %
36%
20 / 76
Total Strikes
26 / 71
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Irene Aldana26 / 7126 / 710 / 00
1Ketlen Vieira20 / 7620 / 760 / 00

Ketlen Vieira

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14