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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Bogdan Guskov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1485
Nikita Krylov editorial illustration
Elo1522
Bogdan Guskov editorial illustration

Nikita KrylovvsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Bogdan Guskov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:18

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Bogdan Guskov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nikita Krylov at -196 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Bogdan Guskov has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov
Red Corner
VS
Bogdan Guskov
Blue Corner
-196
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+164
(38%)
1485
Elo
1522
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov
oldest →
W
vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22
W
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25
W
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26
L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26
latest
Bogdan Guskov
oldest →
W
KOvs Zac Pauga · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25
D
vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25
L
KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricBogdan Guskov
4.36
Strikes / min
4.57
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
47%
Strike defense
44%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
0.00
53%
Takedown defense
57%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1553 vs 1534Strikes4.4 vs 4.6Takedowns2.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.70Form-0.5 vs 0.8
Nikita KrylovBogdan Guskov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -36.8|Blue +36.8
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetBogdan Guskov

By target zone

6
30% acc · 38%
Head
20
50% acc · 87%
3
60% acc · 19%
Body
1
100% acc · 4%
7
78% acc · 44%
Leg
2
100% acc · 9%

By position

16
47% acc · 100%
Distance
11
42% acc · 48%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
12
71% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Nikita Krylov rounds
0
even
1
Bogdan Guskov rounds
Round 1Bogdan Guskov edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
16 / 34
Sig Strikes
23 / 43
47%
Sig Str %
53%
16 / 34
Total Strikes
28 / 48
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bogdan Guskov23 / 4328 / 480 / 00
1Nikita Krylov16 / 3416 / 340 / 00

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights23

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights8