Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).
- Joaquin Buckley has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby Covington
oldest →L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23 Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25L
DECvs Sean Brady · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby CovingtonMetricJoaquin Buckley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Colby CovingtonJoaquin Buckley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Covington(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -24.8|Blue +24.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +294.0|Blue -294.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Colby CovingtonTargetJoaquin Buckley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:22
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control1:28
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control1:50
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
