Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Leben enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Andrew Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Andrew Craig has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Leben (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris LebenL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Brian Stann · Jan 11W
KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Jul 11L
KOvs Mark Munoz · Nov 11L
vs Derek Brunson · Dec 12L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Dec 13 Andrew CraigL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12L
vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13L
SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14L
KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris LebenMetricAndrew Craig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)0.00evenly matched on net striking-0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris LebenAndrew Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Leben(8 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.2|Blue +2.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris LebenTargetAndrew Craig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Leben edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control2:46
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 2Andrew Craig edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control1:45
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 3Andrew Craig edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:29
22Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
