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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bethe Correia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1409

Jessamyn DukevsBethe CorreiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · Saturday, April 26, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Official fight result

Bethe Correia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJessamyn Duke: Submission grapplervsBethe Correia: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jessamyn Duke wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Bethe Correia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessamyn Duke at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bethe Correia has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jessamyn Duke has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessamyn Duke

Red Corner

Bethe Correia

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1355

Elo

1409

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'5"

185.42 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessamyn DukeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Peggy Morgan · Nov 13

KOvs Leslie Smith · Jul 14

vs Elizabeth Phillips · Jul 15

latest

Bethe CorreiaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Holly Holm · Jun 17

SUBvs Irene Aldana · May 19

vs Sijara Eubanks · Sep 19

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 20

vs Karol Rosa · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessamyn DukeMetricBethe Correia

4.83

Strikes / min

4.37

4.43

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

57%

Strike defense

56%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

0.39

50%

Takedown defense

85%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessamyn DukeBethe Correia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessamyn Duke(4 fights)Bethe Correia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.8|Blue +53.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessamyn DukeTargetBethe Correia

By target zone

33% acc · 67%

Head

39% acc · 55%

80% acc · 30%

Body

56% acc · 15%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

82% acc · 30%

By position

37% acc · 80%

Distance

48% acc · 97%

79% acc · 20%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessamyn Duke rounds

even

Bethe Correia rounds

Round 1Bethe Correia edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Bethe Correia edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:06

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 3Bethe Correia edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:06

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 130

Sig Strikes

91 / 186

41%

Sig Str %

50%

70 / 148

Total Strikes

118 / 216

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bethe Correia	27 / 63	31 / 68	0 / 0
1	Jessamyn Duke	20 / 45	28 / 54	0 / 1
2	Bethe Correia	31 / 48	50 / 68	0 / 0
2	Jessamyn Duke	15 / 37	21 / 44	0 / 3
3	Bethe Correia	33 / 75	37 / 80	0 / 0
3	Jessamyn Duke	19 / 48	21 / 50	1 / 2

Jessamyn Duke

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Bethe Correia

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights11