Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
- Kevin Holland has a 23cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar NelsonW2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23 Kevin Holland
oldest →L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25W
DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricKevin Holland
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.29Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gunnar NelsonKevin Holland
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -13.3|Blue +13.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +672.0|Blue -672.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gunnar NelsonTargetKevin Holland
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control2:55
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:22
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Round 3Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control3:12
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
