Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru Usman
oldest →W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Khamzat Chimaev
oldest →W
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 22W
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22W
SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24W
vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25L
DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricKhamzat Chimaev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.49evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kamaru UsmanKhamzat Chimaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -27.5|Blue +27.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -189.0|Blue +189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kamaru UsmanTargetKhamzat Chimaev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:35Control
Round 2Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:41Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
