Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Matt Mitrione has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16 Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt MitrioneMetricDerrick Lewis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.76evenly matched on net striking-0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt MitrioneDerrick Lewis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -125.4|Blue +125.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +127.0|Blue -127.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt MitrioneTargetDerrick Lewis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:07
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
