Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Belal Muhammad has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25 Belal MuhammadL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Gilbert Burns · May 23W
vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24L
vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25L
DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricBelal Muhammad
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Stephen ThompsonBelal Muhammad
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +3.3|Blue -3.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Stephen ThompsonTargetBelal Muhammad
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:45
44Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:07Control
Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:11Control
Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:07
4Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:39Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
