Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kelvin Gastelum has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
- Dustin Stoltzfus has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin GastelumL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Dustin Stoltzfus
oldest →L
KOvs Abus Magomedov · Sep 22W
SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23L
KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24W
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricDustin Stoltzfus
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kelvin GastelumDustin Stoltzfus
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +5.9|Blue -5.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kelvin GastelumTargetDustin Stoltzfus
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Stoltzfus edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:03
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:47Control
Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:13Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:14
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
