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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Geoff Neal won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1504

Elo1478

Vicente LuquevsGeoff NealUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · Saturday, August 6, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:01

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsGeoff Neal: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Geoff Neal has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Geoff Neal

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1504

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricGeoff Neal

4.80

Strikes / min

5.02

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.50

51%

Strike defense

57%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

0.54

59%

Takedown defense

87%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueGeoff Neal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Geoff Neal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.6|Blue -26.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetGeoff Neal

By target zone

36% acc · 58%

Head

113

56% acc · 93%

84% acc · 27%

Body

83% acc · 4%

94% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

47% acc · 94%

Distance

103

55% acc · 85%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

77% acc · 14%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Geoff Neal rounds

Round 1Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

97 / 203

Sig Strikes

121 / 211

47.7%

Sig Str %

58.3%

97 / 203

Total Strikes

125 / 215

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Geoff Neal	52 / 93	53 / 94	0 / 0
1	Vicente Luque	30 / 80	30 / 80	0 / 0
2	Geoff Neal	40 / 75	43 / 78	1 / 2
2	Vicente Luque	51 / 91	51 / 91	0 / 0
3	Geoff Neal	29 / 43	29 / 43	0 / 1
3	Vicente Luque	16 / 32	16 / 32	0 / 0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14