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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Lucas Fernando won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1483

Elo—

Rafael TobiasvsLucas FernandoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Official fight result

Lucas Fernando won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:10

Style matchupRafael Tobias: WrestlervsLucas Fernando: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lucas Fernando is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Tobias has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rafael Tobias has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Lucas Fernando has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Tobias

Red Corner

Lucas Fernando

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1483

Elo

N/A

Age

Orthodox

Stance

N/A

6'2"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Tobias

oldest →

vs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 26

latest

Lucas FernandoNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael TobiasMetricLucas Fernando

2.77

Strikes / min

1.87

5.81

Strikes absorbed / min

4.73

35%

Strike defense

38%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

3.00

100%

Takedown defense

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.04evenly matched on net striking-2.86

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael TobiasTargetLucas Fernando

By target zone

11% acc · 38%

Head

46% acc · 54%

100% acc · 38%

Body

90% acc · 26%

75% acc · 23%

Leg

93% acc · 20%

By position

21% acc · 85%

Distance

59% acc · 96%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Tobias rounds

even

Lucas Fernando rounds

Round 1Lucas Fernando edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:50

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lucas Fernando edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Lucas Fernando edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 56

Sig Strikes

69 / 115

18%

Sig Str %

59.7%

14 / 58

Total Strikes

69 / 115

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lucas Fernando	27 / 47	27 / 47	0 / 0
1	Rafael Tobias	7 / 25	8 / 27	1 / 1
2	Lucas Fernando	28 / 45	28 / 45	0 / 0
2	Rafael Tobias	6 / 23	6 / 23	0 / 0
3	Lucas Fernando	14 / 23	14 / 23	0 / 0
3	Rafael Tobias	0 / 8	0 / 8	0 / 0

Rafael Tobias

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2

Lucas Fernando

Stance—

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights1