Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jason Witt has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
- Matthew Semelsberger has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23L
vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24L
KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24 Jason WittL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20W
SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20W
vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 21L
KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matthew SemelsbergerMetricJason Witt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matthew SemelsbergerJason Witt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +55.1|Blue -55.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matthew SemelsbergerTargetJason Witt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Matthew Semelsberger rounds
Round 1Matthew Semelsberger edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
