Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Casey Kenney has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Casey KenneyL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20W
vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20W
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20L
vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricCasey Kenney
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Louis SmolkaCasey Kenney
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +18.9|Blue -18.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Louis SmolkaTargetCasey Kenney
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Casey Kenney edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
