Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gray Maynard has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Gray Maynard has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
- Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gray Maynard
oldest →L
vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15W
vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16W
vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17 Nate Diaz
oldest →L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gray MaynardMetricNate Diaz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.72Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gray MaynardNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gray Maynard(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -5.0|Blue +5.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gray MaynardTargetNate Diaz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:48
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
