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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Rosa won · SUB R1

Elo1430

Elo1377

Charles RosavsManny BermudezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Charles Rosa won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:46

Style matchupCharles Rosa: Submission grapplervsManny Bermudez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Charles Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Rosa at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Rosa threatens submissions; Manny Bermudez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Charles Rosa has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Rosa

Red Corner

Manny Bermudez

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1430

Elo

1377

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Manny Bermudez

oldest →

SUBvs Albert Morales · Feb 18

SUBvs Davey Grant · Jul 18

SUBvs Benito Lopez · Feb 19

vs Casey Kenney · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RosaMetricManny Bermudez

3.08

Strikes / min

2.92

3.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

47%

Strike defense

46%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

3.06

38%

Takedown defense

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

3.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles RosaManny Bermudez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Rosa(10 fights)Manny Bermudez(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.3|Blue -53.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +861.0|Blue -861.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RosaTargetManny Bermudez

By target zone

33% acc · 17%

Head

69% acc · 93%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

75% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

81% acc · 96%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Rosa rounds

even

Manny Bermudez rounds

Round 1Manny Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:17Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 8

Sig Strikes

27 / 38

75%

Sig Str %

71%

8 / 11

Total Strikes

37 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Manny Bermudez	27 / 38	37 / 49	1 / 1	0
1	Charles Rosa	6 / 8	8 / 11	0 / 0	1

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Manny Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5