Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Phil Davis
oldest →W
SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14 Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Phil DavisMetricRyan Bader
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.52evenly matched on net striking+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Phil DavisRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Phil Davis(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Phil DavisTargetRyan Bader
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control1:25
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:03
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:26Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
