Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Danielle Taylor won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1367

Jessica PennevsDanielle TaylorUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Danielle Taylor won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jessica Penne wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Danielle Taylor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Penne at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Danielle Taylor has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Danielle Taylor has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jessica Penne has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Penne

Red Corner

Danielle Taylor

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1492

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'0"

170.18 cm

Reach

152.4 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica PenneL3 streak

oldest →

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21

vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22

SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23

vs Elise Reed · Oct 24

latest

Danielle TaylorL2 streak

oldest →

vs Maryna Moroz · Aug 16

DECvs Seohee Ham · Nov 16

vs JJ Aldrich · Jan 18

vs Weili Zhang · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica PenneMetricDanielle Taylor

2.63

Strikes / min

2.75

5.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

45%

Strike defense

71%

1.29

TDs / 15 min

0.20

36%

Takedown defense

70%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.42Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica PenneDanielle Taylor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Penne(9 fights)Danielle Taylor(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.0|Blue -125.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica PenneTargetDanielle Taylor

By target zone

27% acc · 54%

Head

30% acc · 60%

78% acc · 45%

Body

79% acc · 15%

50% acc · 1%

Leg

86% acc · 25%

By position

35% acc · 80%

Distance

40% acc · 93%

74% acc · 20%

Clinch

56% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Penne rounds

even

Danielle Taylor rounds

Round 1Danielle Taylor edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jessica Penne edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:29

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 178

Sig Strikes

72 / 176

38%

Sig Str %

41%

71 / 181

Total Strikes

76 / 182

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danielle Taylor	22 / 60	23 / 61	0 / 0
1	Jessica Penne	19 / 54	19 / 54	0 / 0
2	Danielle Taylor	29 / 72	32 / 75	0 / 0
2	Jessica Penne	31 / 72	31 / 72	0 / 0
3	Danielle Taylor	21 / 44	21 / 46	0 / 0
3	Jessica Penne	19 / 52	21 / 55	1 / 2

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Danielle Taylor

StanceOrthodox

Height60.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights5