Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25 Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24W
KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25L
DECvs Sean Brady · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricJoaquin Buckley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Stephen ThompsonJoaquin Buckley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -33.5|Blue +33.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Stephen ThompsonTargetJoaquin Buckley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:18Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:03
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:37Control
Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
