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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Rua won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1447

Elo1490

Mauricio RuavsForrest GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · Saturday, August 27, 2011Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:53

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsForrest Griffin: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Forrest Griffin wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Forrest Griffin at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Forrest Griffin

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1447

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Forrest GriffinW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rich Franklin · Feb 11

vs Tito Ortiz · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricForrest Griffin

3.57

Strikes / min

4.38

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

54%

Strike defense

61%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

1.05

49%

Takedown defense

57%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaForrest Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Forrest Griffin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.7|Blue +42.7

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetForrest Griffin

By target zone

55% acc · 100%

Head

8% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 67%

By position

47% acc · 50%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

73% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Forrest Griffin rounds

Round 1Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 29

Sig Strikes

3 / 19

55%

Sig Str %

15%

16 / 30

Total Strikes

3 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Forrest Griffin	3 / 19	3 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Mauricio Rua	16 / 29	16 / 30	0 / 0	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Forrest Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3