Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Vera threatens submissions; Josias Musasa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Carlos Vera has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Josias Musasa has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Josias Musasa (53.5%).
- Josias Musasa has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Vera
oldest →L
vs Rinya Nakamura · Feb 24 Josias Musasa
oldest →L
vs Colby Thicknesse · Sep 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos VeraMetricJosias Musasa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.26evenly matched on net striking-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Carlos VeraJosias Musasa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Vera(2 fights)Josias Musasa(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +31.1|Blue -31.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Carlos VeraTargetJosias Musasa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Carlos Vera edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:14
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
