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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Casey O'Neill won · U-DEC R3

Elo1520

Elo1548

Casey O'NeillvsLuana SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Casey O'Neill won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCasey O'Neill: Pressure fightervsLuana Santos: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey O'Neill at +124 American odds

+$124 profit

$224 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Santos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Luana Santos has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Casey O'Neill

Red Corner

Luana Santos

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1520

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Casey O'Neill

oldest →

KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Oct 21

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23

KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26

latest

Luana SantosW5 streak

oldest →

vs Stephanie Egger · Dec 23

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Jul 24

SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 25

vs Melissa Croden · Dec 25

DECvs Karol Rosa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Casey O'NeillMetricLuana Santos

7.89

Strikes / min

2.99

5.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

57%

Strike defense

63%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

2.17

70%

Takedown defense

85%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.36Δ 2.30 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Casey O'NeillLuana Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Casey O'Neill(8 fights)Luana Santos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.6|Blue +28.6

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Casey O'NeillTargetLuana Santos

By target zone

37% acc · 72%

Head

35% acc · 63%

63% acc · 14%

Body

59% acc · 24%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

39% acc · 83%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

71% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Casey O'Neill rounds

even

Luana Santos rounds

Round 1Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 2Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:10

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control2:11

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 193

Sig Strikes

41 / 97

42.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

113 / 227

Total Strikes

46 / 102

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luana Santos	16 / 34	20 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Casey O'Neill	24 / 54	29 / 59	0 / 1	0
2	Luana Santos	12 / 32	13 / 33	1 / 4	0
2	Casey O'Neill	25 / 62	28 / 66	0 / 1	0
3	Luana Santos	13 / 31	13 / 31	0 / 1	0
3	Casey O'Neill	34 / 77	56 / 102	0 / 0	1

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Luana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7