Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tyron Woodley has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tyron WoodleyL4 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20L
KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21 Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tyron WoodleyMetricKelvin Gastelum
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tyron WoodleyKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -93.8|Blue +93.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tyron WoodleyTargetKelvin Gastelum
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:04
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:22
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
