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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jean Silva won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1557
Jean Silva
Elo1474

Jean SilvavsMelsik BaghdasaryanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Saturday, February 22, 2025Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Jean Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupJean Silva: Pressure fightervsMelsik Baghdasaryan: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jean Silva wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Jean Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean Silva at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Melsik Baghdasaryan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jean Silva
Red Corner
VS
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Blue Corner
-490
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+380
(21%)
1557
Elo
1474
29
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jean Silva
oldest →
W
KOvs Charles Jourdain · Jun 24
W
KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 24
W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Apr 25
L
KOvs Diego Lopes · Sep 25
W
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 26
latest
Melsik Baghdasaryan
oldest →
W
KOvs Collin Anglin · Jul 21
W
vs Bruno Souza · Nov 21
L
SUBvs Josh Culibao · Feb 23
W
vs Tucker Lutz · Jul 23
L
SUBvs Murtazali Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jean SilvaMetricMelsik Baghdasaryan
4.82
Strikes / min
5.04
4.50
Strikes absorbed / min
3.14
53%
Strike defense
56%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
0.00
78%
Takedown defense
72%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.32Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1530Strikes4.8 vs 5.0Takedowns1.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.3
Jean SilvaMelsik Baghdasaryan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601488151515431570← oldermost recent →
Jean Silva(7 fights)Melsik Baghdasaryan(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +83.3|Blue -83.3
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -364.0|Blue +364.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jean SilvaTargetMelsik Baghdasaryan

By target zone

11
58% acc · 61%
Head
5
25% acc · 71%
7
88% acc · 39%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 29%

By position

11
55% acc · 61%
Distance
7
28% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
7
100% acc · 39%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jean Silva rounds
0
even
0
Melsik Baghdasaryan rounds
Round 1Jean Silva edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 27
Sig Strikes
7 / 25
66%
Sig Str %
28%
18 / 27
Total Strikes
7 / 25
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Melsik Baghdasaryan7 / 257 / 250 / 00
1Jean Silva18 / 2718 / 270 / 00

Jean Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7

Melsik Baghdasaryan

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6