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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Buddy Roberts won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1358

Buddy RobertsvsCaio MagalhaesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Buddy Roberts won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Buddy Roberts wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Buddy Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Buddy Roberts at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Buddy Roberts has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Buddy Roberts has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Buddy Roberts

Red Corner

Caio Magalhaes

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1490

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Buddy Roberts

oldest →

KOvs Yushin Okami · Aug 12

latest

Caio MagalhaesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nick Ring · Dec 13

KOvs Luke Zachrich · Apr 14

KOvs Trevor Smith · Nov 14

SUBvs Josh Samman · Jul 15

vs Brad Tavares · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Buddy RobertsMetricCaio Magalhaes

2.17

Strikes / min

2.27

2.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.78

70%

Strike defense

56%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.05

76%

Takedown defense

58%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Buddy Roberts(2 fights)Caio Magalhaes(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.3|Blue -132.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Buddy RobertsTargetCaio Magalhaes

By target zone

28% acc · 74%

Head

14% acc · 36%

58% acc · 20%

Body

33% acc · 9%

40% acc · 6%

Leg

43% acc · 55%

By position

27% acc · 80%

Distance

22% acc · 91%

86% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Buddy Roberts rounds

even

Caio Magalhaes rounds

Round 1Buddy Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:06

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 3Caio Magalhaes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 111

Sig Strikes

22 / 92

31%

Sig Str %

23.3%

81 / 158

Total Strikes

27 / 98

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 15

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Caio Magalhaes	5 / 30	7 / 33	0 / 6
1	Buddy Roberts	10 / 31	36 / 58	0 / 0
2	Caio Magalhaes	7 / 28	7 / 28	0 / 5
2	Buddy Roberts	9 / 32	21 / 44	0 / 0
3	Caio Magalhaes	10 / 34	13 / 37	2 / 4
3	Buddy Roberts	16 / 48	24 / 56	0 / 0

Buddy Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Caio Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7