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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Garreth McLellan won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1360

Bubba BushvsGarreth McLellanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · Saturday, October 24, 2015Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Garreth McLellan won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:58

Model Prediction: Garreth McLellan wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Garreth McLellan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garreth McLellan at +270 American odds

+$270 profit

$370 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Garreth McLellan enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Garreth McLellan has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bubba Bush has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Garreth McLellan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bubba Bush

Red Corner

Garreth McLellan

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1490

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bubba BushNo prior UFC fights on record.

Garreth McLellanL4 streak

oldest →

vs Bartosz Fabinski · Apr 15

KOvs Magnus Cedenblad · May 16

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 16

KOvs Paulo Costa · Mar 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bubba BushMetricGarreth McLellan

0.63

Strikes / min

3.56

7.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.94

25%

Strike defense

45%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

1.15

60%

Takedown defense

34%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-6.38Δ 7.00 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bubba BushGarreth McLellan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bubba Bush(1 fights)Garreth McLellan(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +130.9|Blue -130.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bubba BushTargetGarreth McLellan

By target zone

38% acc · 38%

Head

71% acc · 90%

100% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 9%

80% acc · 50%

Leg

50% acc · 1%

By position

60% acc · 38%

Distance

21% acc · 3%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

50% acc · 50%

Ground

79% acc · 97%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bubba Bush rounds

even

Garreth McLellan rounds

Round 1Bubba Bush edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:20

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Garreth McLellan edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:37

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:01Control

Round 3Garreth McLellan edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:00

44Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 14

Sig Strikes

97 / 133

52.7%

Sig Str %

55.3%

31 / 41

Total Strikes

163 / 206

3 / 6

TDs

2 / 5

55.3%

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

5:57

Ctrl Time

7:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Garreth McLellan	1 / 7	3 / 9	0 / 0	1
1	Bubba Bush	7 / 12	18 / 27	2 / 3	0
2	Garreth McLellan	52 / 70	83 / 106	0 / 0	0
2	Bubba Bush	0 / 1	7 / 8	0 / 2	0
3	Garreth McLellan	44 / 56	77 / 91	2 / 5	0
3	Bubba Bush	1 / 1	6 / 6	1 / 1	0

Bubba Bush

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights1

Garreth McLellan

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5