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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · Submission R3

Elo1528

Elo1511

Bryce MitchellvsSantiago LunaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

Submission · Round 3 · 4:52

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Santiago Luna

Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsSantiago Luna: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Luna has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Santiago Luna has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Santiago Luna has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bryce Mitchell

Red Corner

Santiago Luna

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1528

Elo

1511

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryce Mitchell

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Sep 23

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

latest

Santiago LunaW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Quang Le · Sep 25

vs Angel Pacheco · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryce MitchellMetricSantiago Luna

2.27

Strikes / min

8.20

1.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

58%

Strike defense

71%

3.24

TDs / 15 min

4.21

33%

Takedown defense

50%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 3.71 — meaningful gap+4.38

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Santiago Luna(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.7|Blue -16.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryce MitchellTargetSantiago Luna

By target zone

38% acc · 41%

Head

31% acc · 44%

83% acc · 45%

Body

36% acc · 44%

60% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

39% acc · 55%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

100% acc · 27%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryce Mitchell rounds

even

Santiago Luna rounds

Round 1Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control4:08

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:41

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control3:51

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 41

Sig Strikes

9 / 25

52.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

54 / 77

Total Strikes

112 / 130

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

22%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:40

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Santiago Luna	3 / 4	58 / 59	0 / 1	0
1	Bryce Mitchell	11 / 13	18 / 20	0 / 1	0
2	Santiago Luna	3 / 12	15 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Bryce Mitchell	9 / 22	20 / 36	2 / 3	0
3	Santiago Luna	3 / 9	39 / 46	0 / 0	1
3	Bryce Mitchell	2 / 6	16 / 21	0 / 1	2

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 48% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Santiago Luna

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3