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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1493

Bryce MitchellvsSaid NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryce Mitchell at -144 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Bryce Mitchell has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Said Nurmagomedov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryce Mitchell

Red Corner

Said Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

-144

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+124

(45%)

1528

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryce Mitchell

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Sep 23

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Said Nurmagomedov

oldest →

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryce MitchellMetricSaid Nurmagomedov

2.27

Strikes / min

3.08

1.60

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

58%

Strike defense

55%

3.24

TDs / 15 min

0.86

33%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryce MitchellSaid Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.8|Blue -34.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryce MitchellTargetSaid Nurmagomedov

By target zone

50% acc · 23%

Head

54% acc · 65%

64% acc · 54%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

45% acc · 38%

Distance

68% acc · 65%

89% acc · 62%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

60% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryce Mitchell rounds

even

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:37

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:46Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control3:56

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control4:11

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 20

Sig Strikes

20 / 32

43.7%

Sig Str %

62.7%

39 / 51

Total Strikes

100 / 126

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:44

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Said Nurmagomedov	17 / 25	42 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Bryce Mitchell	10 / 14	21 / 28	0 / 2	0
2	Said Nurmagomedov	1 / 5	31 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Bryce Mitchell	3 / 5	10 / 12	3 / 4	0
3	Said Nurmagomedov	2 / 2	27 / 31	0 / 0	1
3	Bryce Mitchell	0 / 1	8 / 11	0 / 3	0

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11