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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · SUB R1

Elo1528

Elo1414

Bryce MitchellvsMatt SaylesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, December 7, 2019Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:20

Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsMatt Sayles: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(76.8%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryce Mitchell at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Sayles threatens submissions; Bryce Mitchell has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Matt Sayles has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryce Mitchell

Red Corner

Matt Sayles

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1528

Elo

1414

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryce MitchellW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Matt Sayles

oldest →

vs Sheymon Moraes · Aug 18

SUBvs Kyle Nelson · May 19

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryce MitchellMetricMatt Sayles

2.27

Strikes / min

4.83

1.60

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

58%

Strike defense

61%

3.24

TDs / 15 min

0.36

33%

Takedown defense

81%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryce MitchellMatt Sayles

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Matt Sayles(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +114.2|Blue -114.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryce MitchellTargetMatt Sayles

By target zone

83% acc · 83%

Head

67% acc · 100%

100% acc · 17%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

100% acc · 17%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

83% acc · 83%

Ground

100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryce Mitchell rounds

even

Matt Sayles rounds

Round 1Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:59

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 7

Sig Strikes

2 / 4

85%

Sig Str %

50%

24 / 28

Total Strikes

6 / 9

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Sayles	2 / 4	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Bryce Mitchell	6 / 7	24 / 28	1 / 1	1

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Matt Sayles

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4