← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1528

Elo1484

Bryce MitchellvsKron GracieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:39

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(86.3%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryce Mitchell at -950 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kron Gracie threatens submissions; Bryce Mitchell has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Bryce Mitchell has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bryce Mitchell

Red Corner

Kron Gracie

Blue Corner

-950

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+625

(14%)

1528

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryce MitchellW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Sep 23

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Kron GracieL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Feb 19

vs Cub Swanson · Oct 19

vs Charles Jourdain · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryce MitchellMetricKron Gracie

2.27

Strikes / min

2.95

1.60

Strikes absorbed / min

5.73

58%

Strike defense

51%

3.24

TDs / 15 min

0.35

33%

Takedown defense

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 3.45 — meaningful gap-2.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryce MitchellKron Gracie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Kron Gracie(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.0|Blue -44.0

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -224.0|Blue +224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryce MitchellTargetKron Gracie

By target zone

61% acc · 54%

Head

16% acc · 67%

90% acc · 35%

Body

33% acc · 17%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

33% acc · 17%

By position

65% acc · 65%

Distance

17% acc · 83%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

80% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryce Mitchell rounds

even

Kron Gracie rounds

Round 1Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:23

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:06

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 36

Sig Strikes

6 / 31

72.3%

Sig Str %

27.7%

147 / 177

Total Strikes

90 / 118

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:33

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kron Gracie	2 / 7	41 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Bryce Mitchell	6 / 8	64 / 74	1 / 1	0
2	Kron Gracie	1 / 18	46 / 65	0 / 0	1
2	Bryce Mitchell	10 / 14	70 / 86	1 / 1	0
3	Kron Gracie	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Bryce Mitchell	10 / 14	13 / 17	0 / 0	0

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Kron Gracie

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4