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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ilia Topuria won · SUB R2

Elo1528

Elo1520

Bryce MitchellvsIlia TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:10

Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsIlia Topuria: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilia Topuria has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryce Mitchell

Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1528

Elo

1520

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryce MitchellW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryce MitchellMetricIlia Topuria

2.27

Strikes / min

4.81

1.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

58%

Strike defense

64%

3.24

TDs / 15 min

1.96

33%

Takedown defense

93%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryce MitchellIlia Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.3|Blue -8.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryce MitchellTargetIlia Topuria

By target zone

39% acc · 61%

Head

54% acc · 85%

50% acc · 31%

Body

38% acc · 13%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

43% acc · 94%

Distance

45% acc · 73%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

89% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryce Mitchell rounds

even

Ilia Topuria rounds

Round 1Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:29

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 82

Sig Strikes

40 / 77

45%

Sig Str %

51%

46 / 94

Total Strikes

53 / 93

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

10%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ilia Topuria	17 / 38	27 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Bryce Mitchell	21 / 52	31 / 64	1 / 5	0
2	Ilia Topuria	23 / 39	26 / 43	0 / 0	1
2	Bryce Mitchell	15 / 30	15 / 30	0 / 4	0

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9