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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1430

Bryce MitchellvsCharles RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Rosa at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Rosa threatens submissions; Bryce Mitchell has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Bryce Mitchell has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Bryce Mitchell

Red Corner

Charles Rosa

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1528

Elo

1430

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryce MitchellW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryce MitchellMetricCharles Rosa

2.27

Strikes / min

3.08

1.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

58%

Strike defense

47%

3.24

TDs / 15 min

1.67

33%

Takedown defense

38%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bryce MitchellCharles Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +97.7|Blue -97.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryce MitchellTargetCharles Rosa

By target zone

75% acc · 68%

Head

29% acc · 40%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

0% acc

Distance

50% acc · 80%

Clinch

87% acc · 100%

Ground

50% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryce Mitchell rounds

even

Charles Rosa rounds

Round 1Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:22

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control4:37

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:52

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 49

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

81.3%

Sig Str %

65%

60 / 74

Total Strikes

12 / 17

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Rosa	1 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Bryce Mitchell	11 / 13	12 / 14	1 / 1	3
2	Charles Rosa	3 / 4	4 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Bryce Mitchell	17 / 21	28 / 32	1 / 1	2
3	Charles Rosa	1 / 5	6 / 10	0 / 0	0
3	Bryce Mitchell	12 / 15	20 / 28	1 / 1	0

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13